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WEEK 11 SUMMARY

  • francescoturturici
  • 21 mar 2021
  • Tempo di lettura: 5 min


  • Third week of March -1.81%

  • March total + 0.42%

  • Total 2021 + 18.29%

Hi guys! The third week of March is over and our portfolio has seen a decline of 1.81%, however we still manage to cling tooth and nail and remain momentarily positive this month. Performance: 1/5 - We underperformed the nasdaq this week. Since the beginning of the year, the nasdaq has gained 2.54% while we are at 18.29%. We started the year in trouble but I'm sure we will return to our ATH soon (we are currently -15% from our mid-February high) Satisfaction: 1/5 - I leave everything 1 because we can do better and we will do it. Meanwhile, the US 10-Year Bond Yield hit 1.73, a record in the past 52 weeks. At this point I would like to make a little parenthesis before seeing the performance of our portfolio.

Despite the good words of dear Powell which allowed a sharp rise on Wednesday, on Thursday we witnessed a massive correction in the market following the rise in the U.S. 10 Y (bond yield). On Friday, however, before the opening of the markets, bonds reached 1.70, which brought the nasdaq to 12700 from 12900 in less than an hour. Despite a moment of uncertainty, the stock market managed to rebound on this support which currently seems to be holding up and headed towards the 12900 level which instead proved to be strong resistance. But what do I mean? It appears that the stock market is accepting the bond yield which hits week after week highs. So I expect that the big dips we saw in February and March are probably leaving them in the past. I am not saying that the market is ready to reach new highs, the fear is there and will be there for some time, but it is likely and I hope that such massive corrections lasting weeks and months will not face them in the short term. Of course, if bonds hit 2 on Monday, there is likely to be a strong correction. The relationship between the stock market and the bond market appears to be balancing.


In the TOP 3 of the week we find:


  1. XIAOMI: + 15.38%

  2. CPRX: + 12.34%

  3. YADEA: + 5.90%


On Friday the news came out again according to which Xiaomi is working on its electric car model (already the news was leaked several weeks ago but promptly denied by the company). The stock was pushed to $ 27 but then corrected again. The news was made known by a Chinese report that the project should actually start this or next month. The rumors continue with an alleged meeting between Lei Jun and the founder of NIO; then there would be various partnerships with local auto manufacturers, BYD. News not yet confirmed by the CEO, so currently it's just rumors.


In FLOP 3 we find:


  1. NNDM: -9.81%

  2. PLTR: -9.66%

  3. XINYI: -9.60%


The movements during the week were few, I closed 3 positions in total, a position of GMW with a TP at $ 30, BOX and INTEL which in the meantime have reached the record in the last 52 weeks. I have opened 1 position in XINYI for the short term.

I had to close these positions to have available liquidity, I have been out of liquidity for several weeks and I don't feel comfortable. Slowly I will try to close other positions but I am careful not to close positions in red that could compromise your copy.


(Part 2 released yesterday)


These two months have been difficult for everyone, and checking between the various PI profiles I realized that many copiers are not satisfied with their behavior (I counted at least 5, including a green star and the other red stars). Indeed, it appears that some PIs have closed numerous positions without considering its copiers. Closing a losing position can obviously de-synchronize the performance of the portfolio. In fact, many complained that although the PIs were currently positive in March, they still recorded losses. Let me give you a small example: suppose I open a position of $ 50 and a new copier arrives when I find myself gaining 10%. From this moment the market starts to go down and I close the position with a gain of 5%. I will have a 5% gain, while my copier a 5% loss. So I decide to reopen a new position with these $ 50, my copier will not be able to copy this position because obviously he does not have the $ 50 available but only $ 45, so the portfolio begins to uncoordinate, without considering the fact that I can decide to invest also the gain I got from the position. Obviously in an “ordinary” market, 1-2 positions are not a problem especially with a loss of only 5%. In these two months we have seen corrections of up to 50% for some titles, so you can understand how this can affect the copy. This is basically the reason why I have decided not to close positions at this time. I am closing only positions that I know that everyone is in profit (BOX and INTEL in fact have reached their maximum in the last year), for all other positions I generally work with TP fixed at the time of the opening of the transaction, so it is difficult for you close it at a loss.

I repeat, in a market with an ordinary trend I would not highlight this, but now we are in an extraordinary moment.

BOX, for example, I closed it with a gain of 3.46%, opened in August last year, while you will have earned + 10% on average about.

That's why I don't think in the least about closing NNDM; although I have a 23% gain, many of you have an average loss of 35%. Closing this position is unthinkable for me now.

I hope I have been clear enough. When one is willing to let himself be copied, he must also consider the fact that he is managing the savings of others, so yes, we are recording losses these months but the market will recover, we always think long term. From the 29 copiers I had we got to 14, surely all closed in negative unfortunately, I'm sorry for them but the choice to stop copying was theirs, so they accepted the loss and that's okay. This extraordinary situation in the market made me think a lot about this situation, so next time I will try to be more prepared from this point of view as well.

I contacted Etoro's assistance to solve this AUM problem, by now I have dropped a lot from the maximum but you still do not have the opportunity to add funds and this limits us very much. Obviously I am not getting an answer yet.


Doubts, questions or observations feel free to leave a comment! Goodbye and have a good weekend! Talk to you tomorrow!

 
 
 

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